New York cultural leaders are optimistic about the future of the industry

Discounting the period immediately following September 11th, 2001, when the arts in New York suffered greatly and most arts leaders had no choice but to be more optimistic about the future, the index for the industry has steadily declined. For the first time since 1999, there is a demonstrable increase in the optimism of the arts leaders regarding the future of the industry. Not only has the trend reversed, but the index has risen above 50 indicating optimism about the future.

There are two broad factors that may contribute to this optimism:

1) The overall performance of individual arts organizations has improved in the last six months, as demonstrated by an increase in sales, admissions and fund raising.

2) Almost 80% of those surveyed believe that the improving NY economy will help improve the industry.

According to the survey, in three of the categories surveyed (admissions, fund raising, individual organization) approximately 43% reported an increase in the last six months of 2003 compared to the first half of the year, while only 22% reported a decrease.

Eighty six percent of the Nonprofit Museums and Galleries reported a moderate increase in admissions, sales and attendance and all of the Theaters (100%) reported a moderate increase. Likewise, all of the Commercial Galleries reported an increase in the overall performance of their companies.

The data demonstrate that arts organizations have experienced a prolonged period of difficulty, bordering on a crisis, that seems to be reversing, said James Abruzzo, Managing Director of DHRs nonprofit practice and a consultant to cultural organizations.

When last surveyed, six months ago, the anticipation for the last half of 2003 was not positive at all. Each of the indices, sales, fundraising, individual organizations and the overall industry were more pessimistic about the future. This must come as a pleasant surprise to the arts leaders, commented James Abruzzo, author of the survey. Although optimism, or confidence about the future, is more psychological than quantitative, the state of mind of the cultural establishment does have some practical and real effects. When arts leaders are unsure about the future, they are less likely to plan for new productions, building expansions or artistic experimentation. Since these activities takes months or years to accomplish, the long term effects of a pessimistic approach, are significantly negative.

The survey asked arts leaders what strategies had been effective in improving their organization during the difficult period. On a weighted average of one to five, building flexibility into the annual strategy (like cutting programs, extending runs of popular shows, and in general being prepared with contingency plans) was most effective scoring a 4.2. Diversifying sources of income, like new earned income sources were ranked close behind at 3.9

If there is anything positive about the conditions for the arts in New York City over the last few years, it is that organizations adapted quickly to the circumstances and perhaps, have emerged stronger. This stronger management combined with what seems to be an improving economy in the NY region and increased optimism on the part of arts leaders could portend a period of renewal for NYC culture stated Abruzzo.

The Cultural Confidence Index has been conducted semi annually in New York since 1998. The survey asks arts leaders form Museums, Galleries, Performing Arts organizations, and other cultural attractions in the region to assess the present state of the arts and indicate whether they are optimistic or pessimistic about the future (the next six months). A similar survey has been conducted with Chicago Cultural organizations since 2000. The index in Chicago demonstrates similar trends in optimism, but Chicago was not as negatively affected by the terrorist attacks of September 11th nor did the economy in Chicago not suffer as much as that in New York. A comparison of the two cities shows how the overall economy and psychological factors (like fear of terrorism) can have an effect on the arts.

This month, the cultural confidence index is being conducted for the first time in Berlin. Over time, the indices will be able to compare the arts atmosphere of these three global cultural cities.

For more information, contact James Abruzzo, at DHR International jabruzzo@dhrinternational.com

A report by James Abruzzo, correspondent, New York